Michigan State +7 3.3% play
This could not set up any better for the Spartans who are getting disrespected all over the place despite being 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, 10-0 ATS. The weather is the bigger reason why I'm backing the Spartans on Saturday as it's going to be rainy, and windy, and Jim Harbough already struggled to come up with an innovative offensive play in regular weather. He has also been super conservative in these types of games which always tends to come down to a field goal, and the total here is 41 points which gives us more value on the +7 for the home dog.
Michigan State has very quietly played the tougher schedule having faced an average defense ranking 50th in yards per play, compared to Michigan's offense that has faced #68. Michigan State's defense on average has faced #50.8 offense ypp, while Michigan has faced 56.2. Michigan State's weakness right now is in the secondary, but I don't know how much we can see Michigan taking advantage of it. Right now they feel really good about their running game hammering it 60% of the time, and the weather should be a big reason why they don't challenge Michigan State's secondary.
Michigan State's run defense is #1 in the country and tested facing an average offense ranking 53.8. That's better than Michigan's run defense that ranks an impressive #12 against a #56. Michigan State's offense however can be more creative, and take advantage of some of the aggressive play calling of Don Brown's defense. We have seen it before with the Spartans and it's just an example of better coaching. They also have the WR in Felton Davis who can make plays. If you recall SMU's James Proche had 11 receptions for 166 yards against Michigan's secondary.
Honestly, what has Michigan really proven other than the fact that Jim Harbough is a bully, and he can beat bad teams. They struggled against Northwestern, so did Michigan State. They struggled against Notre Dame with extra preparation and a lot of pressure. They have more pressure here, and that Notre Dame team was extremely one dimensional with their QB at the time in Wimbush. Michigan State has 2 losses, I'm giving them a pass for the 4th quarter melt down at Arizona State where it was 97 degrees and the game didn't end until 3pm local time. Northwestern also came back in the 4th quarter chucking the ball 47 times for 373 yards, and unless the weather changes I don't see Harbough letting Shea Patterson do the same thing. I'm more impressed with their win at Penn State, who was off a bye last week. Michigan State will continue to play the little brother card, and it will work again.
